Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.560155 2.998187 3.484491 4.063857 4.734757 5.486682 6.392833
2025-11-30 1.910778 2.503556 3.233818 4.197006 5.431327 6.957216 8.983842
2025-12-07 1.448319 2.083602 2.936661 4.159991 5.862665 8.141089 11.412783
2025-12-14 1.142226 1.779968 2.701474 4.119824 6.235675 9.260299 13.893689
2025-12-21 0.936302 1.565099 2.533809 4.119394 6.630769 10.430354 16.581797
2025-12-28 0.851482 1.513124 2.590806 4.451141 7.553562 12.480945 20.843320
2026-01-04 0.739583 1.391747 2.510628 4.539942 8.089373 13.984418 24.431053
2026-01-11 0.649228 1.288525 2.439415 4.624215 8.616708 15.524495 28.258210
2026-01-18 0.566052 1.181635 2.341432 4.639844 9.016177 16.883234 31.928130
2026-01-25 0.490428 1.074497 2.223791 4.596478 9.293728 18.048223 35.379879
2026-02-01 0.404459 0.929900 2.009449 4.330288 9.104970 18.325491 37.209968
2026-02-08 0.346710 0.834123 1.876955 4.205461 9.170713 19.080924 40.026509
2026-02-15 0.301637 0.760060 1.782147 4.153766 9.397485 20.217252 43.819543
2026-02-22 0.279478 0.735414 1.791851 4.332481 10.141875 22.503126 50.265965
2026-03-01 0.246400 0.677708 1.717030 4.308980 10.440748 23.899034 55.026201
2026-03-08 0.217251 0.623939 1.642081 4.272439 10.703412 25.247572 59.850979
2026-03-15 0.194138 0.581286 1.586744 4.273712 11.053095 26.829028 65.385676
2026-03-22 0.190153 0.590454 1.663853 4.617958 12.277339 30.546077 76.242370
2026-03-29 0.174910 0.564379 1.644472 4.710163 12.889024 32.905766 84.199141
2026-04-05 0.161086 0.539649 1.624506 4.797533 13.500380 35.336920 92.614727
2026-04-12 0.146169 0.508420 1.581105 4.813749 13.927369 37.366392 100.283424
2026-04-19 0.130968 0.473015 1.519565 4.768838 14.183232 38.996076 107.140207
2026-04-26 0.110859 0.416829 1.386265 4.493095 13.759808 38.824985 109.344498